Regional governments, NGOs urged to prepare for major Sumatran quake

Experts are urging regional governments and humanitarian agencies to step up preparations in time for the next major West Sumatran earthquake.

This comes after their studies show that an 8.8-magnitude earthquake could rock the coastal areas of Bengkulu and Padang in the next 30 years, triggering a major tsunami.

With a total population of 1.5 million in the area, experts warned this could lead to a bigger loss of life and property than those seen in Aceh during the 2004 tsunami.

It has been nearly four years since the Asian tsunami claimed nearly 100,000 lives in Indonesia's Aceh province.

Now, international experts are predicting the next such disaster could cause even more deaths - this time in the Mentawi Islands, which mainly comprises of Padang and Bengkulu.

After studying the pattern of ancient earthquakes at reefs near the islands, they say seismic stresses are still building up, even after three large quakes off the coast in September last year.

In fact, the study showed that the three large earthquakes signal the start of the next big sequence of earthquakes to hit West Sumatra.

Professor Kerry Sieh, Director Earth Observatory Singapore at Nanyang Technological University, said: "If the remaining earthquake happens just as one event, it could be a magnitude of 8.8. If it happens in a series of events, it could be a series of 8 pluses. That is a bit speculative, but it is a bit of a warning that it could happen."

If the team is correct, this could prove devastating to Padang, which has a population more than twice that of Bandar Aceh of 350,000.

And the resulting tsunami, they say, could be over five metres high.

Besides widespread damage to Western Sumatra, there is also the possibility that the Maldives and Mauritius could be hit.

Thus, the team hopes regional governments and aid organisations will hasten their emergency preparations.

Professor Sieh added: "They have been focusing on developing evacuation routes, teaching them what to do after the tsunami if they have lost their homes. There are other organisations who are thinking of building vertical evacuation structures, you build platforms so the water can go underneath."

Source: www.channelnewsasia.com