Saturday, April 12, 2008

Balance of power: West v East


World dominant is in question. West, namely, US, EU, and Canada are on one side, East-namely, Russia, and China, are on the other front, where India is increasingly aligning itself with Russia.

The breakup of USSR was one of the US's major foreign policy achievements. Now, the lone Russia with Chechnya, is not much of a threat. Tibet, and Xinjiang can give long term headache to China, but breaking up Russia and China is very difficult. But India.

Powerful India is a growing trouble for the West, and the solution is breaking up India.

India is very similar to Yugoslavia; the 30% of the Hindi speaking are dominating the rest of India.

Let it be clear: India was never a friend of the USA. India and the Indians are opportunists. When USSR was in downturn, India opened its economy (supposedly), and the West fell for it; started to invest in India heavily. India's economy started wheeling. As soon India realizes that it can stand on its legs, and the re-emergence of Russia, it renewed its existing tie with Russia.

Without divulging in detail, any-one can see the trouble India is in: Kashmir, Punjab, Tamil Nadu, not to mention Nagaland, Maoist rebels, etc. The new trouble for the India is the West-created hub of India's Silicon Valley (Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Karnataka). I prefer to call this new dimension, a Dravidian Federation. These four states have much to gain from siding with the West than sticking with North India.

NSC- National Security Council, should plant the seed now. The US should support separatism in the Indian Sub-continent. There is a long running civil war in Sri Lanka. North-East of Sri Lanka is only 18-miles from India. A new Tamil Eelam will fuel the existing separatism in India. West should take this opportunity to support the creation of Tamil Eelam.

India will never allow a separate independent state for Tamils to be carved out from Sri Lanka. India knows well that the new state behind its backyard is the beginning of the end of India. India will do all it can to prevent a threat from the Tamils of Sri Lanka. It will provide all necessary supports to Sri Lankan state. In 2000, when Tamil Tigers were about to drive out the Sri Lankan Army out of Jaffna peninsula, India offered its Navy. Currently, the military ties between India and Sri Lanka are growing. Sri Lanka is fighting India's war in the North-East.

India wanted to dominate South Asia. After the war with Pakistan over Bangladesh, India determined to have Sri Lanka, and Maldives under its control, so it would deny Pakistani access to Sri Lankan bases. It started training Tamil-militants of Sri Lanka in the 1980s, and that let to the 1987 Indo-Lanka peace accord. India sent 125,000+ strong army to Sri Lanka under the cover of IPKF (Indian Peace Keeping Force). Indians were able to capture 95% of the Tamil-homeland. IPKF could have eliminated LTTE's leadership long time ago, but still was "fighting", so it can stay in forever.

While India was in Sri Lanka, its next move was hatching: Maldives. Indian army trained 60 Tamil mercenaries belonging to the left-wing People's Liberation Organisation of Tamil Eelam (PLOTE), one of the five major Sri Lankan Tamil guerrilla groups of that time. These Indian backed mercenaries were sent to Maldives, and they attempted to overthrow the President Gayoom regime on November 3, 1988. Waiting Indian Paratroopers "intervened in time" to help Maldives.

India was successful in establishing a permanent base in the Maldives, but in Sri Lanka. India thought it could have a permanent base, but with the help of then Sri Lankan President Premadasa, LTTE denied a base too. India lost the war to the LTTE, and finally withdrew in 1990.

India's Southern Naval Command (SNC), headquartered in Cochin (Kochi) is ready to cross Palk Strait to Sri Lanka with a moment notice. This was evident how ready Indian Navy was, when Tsunami stuck Sri Lanka in December, 2004.

Here is the Indian version of the mission:

"INS Sandhayak, a survey ship, and INS Sukanya, an Offshore Patrol Vessel, arrived at Trincomalee on 27 Dec. Three truck loads of dry provisions and medical supplies were handed over to the district government agent and the Sri Lankan Navy. One Medical Officer was deputed to the Trincomalee civil hospital. The balance of the medical team, along with Sri Lankan Navy, set up medical camps at outlying areas around Trincomalee."

"INS Sharda, an Offshore Patrol Vessel, arrived on 27 Dec 04 off Galle harbour. The ship established contact with the Sri Lankan Navy Detachment and launched an inflatable boat with divers and helicopter for reconnaissance. The ship undertook setting up of medical camps ashore in consultation with the local authorities. Barges were arranged by the Sri Lankan Navy for offloading relief supplies supplies from Sharda."

"INS Sutlej, a survey ship, arrived off Galle on 28 Dec 04. The ship carried out sounding (measuring of depth) of the channel using the ship's boats and providing assistance for salvage and clearance/survey of channel to render it safe for navigation."

"One naval Dornier will medical teams and medical supplies landed at Colombo at 1917 h on 26 Dec 04. The medical teams have been deputed to the District Hospital at Hambantota and are attending to the casualties."

"A second naval Dornier sortie was launched from Kochi on 27 Dec 04 with 400 kg of medical supplies and 300 litres of water embarked onboard. The aircraft landed at Colombo (Ratmalana Airbase) at 1900 h. The aircraft returned to Kochi after disembarking relief supplies."

India was busy securing Sri Lankan harbors with more than five Navy ships and Aircraft carriers, and the only international airport with its Air Force, while its own people from Tamil Nadu was to get any sort of relieve from its government.

India went one step further in Trinco. It not only prevented the US Navy from entering Trinco harbor first, but also made it off-limit to all other foreign militaries by blocking the entrance to the harbor. The West's anger was first felt, when Italian Navy, a G7 member, and an US ally, made direct contact with the LTTE. Sri Lankan government was irked. The Government has reportedly rebuked the Italian Embassy in Colombo for sending humanitarian relief directly to the affected Tamils and has made it clear that all governmental assistance from other countries should be routed to the Tamils through it.

Then, the US and India were dating, a sort. It was also the post 911, where all the insurgencies were wrongly labeled as terrorists. India used this opportunity to have its agenda advanced in Sri Lanka. India wanted to suppress the insurgency and separatism on the Island. After the fall of well fortified Elephant-Pass Sri Lankan Army garrison to the LTTE, India was convinced, if no intervention, LTTE would achieve its goal, Tamil Eelam soon. It hurriedly crafted, now infamous, Cease Fire Agreement – CFA, between the LTTE and Sri Lankan Government. India skillfully netted the West to agree to the "United Sri Lanka" concept, and to the CFA. You might still hear the "United Sri Lanka" song from the West, time to time… it was the Indian lyrics.

The CIA equivalent of the Indian agency called, Research and Analytical Wing, RAW, started carrying out its plan, before and after the CFA was singed in 2002. First victim was the Col. Shankar, head of Tamil Tiger Air Force. This was achieved by its Tamil mercenaries now working with the Lankan Army. RAW also played a crucial role in splitting the then Eastern commander, Col. Karuna from the mainstream Tamils.

RAW systematically almost got Tamil Tigers under its wrap. About 12 Tamil ships were intercepted by the Navy. In some cases, the US willingly or unwillingly supported Indian goal, and supported the Lankan Navy. This was the worst-time for the Tamil Tigers. Most of the weapon smuggling rings were dismantled. At least one of the Tiger Aircrafts which was carrying weapons, was shot down, probably by Indian Navy off Mannar. Mean time, East was re-captured by the Army after 14 years. The US, France, UK, and Canada started arresting Tamil-Tiger sympathizers in mass. Every single Tamil, living in the West, was in the danger of stamped as Terrorist. No just, but politics that governed Tamil issue. Many innocent Tamils were also arrested, and their community TV-Networks was shutdown in Europe. Everything was going the way, RAW wanted.

Tamil Tigers maintains its power by strategically withdrawn from the East, so its man-power is not lost. Tigers are now more powerful than they were ever before. Arms they stockpiled are enough to sustain major battles. Tigers may lack modern weaponry to deal with the growing threat from the Russian made MIGs, and the Navies. This doesn't deter its power. Tamils are currently defending the Wanni stronghold fiercely. India is patrolling both countries' coasts, and waiting Delhi's order to land in Mannar, Trinco, Kankesanthurai, and Point Pedro.

This is where the current Sri Lankan conflict is, a stalemate a sort. This would go either way, West or East. It all depends on Tamil Eelam. If the West is succeed in creating a nation at the backyard of India, then, it can weaken India, and still dominate the world.

To prevent India from militarily intervene, during the next stage of battles, the voice of Tamils in India should be encouraged towards the grievances of Tamils of Lanka. There is a silent majority of LTTE sympathizers in Tamil Nadu. These people should speak up, protest against the military intervention, and aids to the genocidal Lankan State. All Tamil Nadu Politians must come together for the Tamils. All actors, movie directors, and other public figures take the cause to the streets all over Tamil Nadu, and beyond. DMK must pressure the central government. Failing to do so, must result in the next new front in Tamil Nadu politics. The new party must be supporting the Tamil Eelam. DMK has a final chance to do something while in power. It is time to get rid of Brahmins from Tamil Nadu politics altogether. All the anti-Tamil figures in Tamil Nadu are Brahmins.

Most of the Indian politians are corrupt, and rich nations should use this weakness as well. Here are some anti-Tamils from the South: Jayalalithaa Jayaram, Subramaniam Swamy, Cho Ramasamy, Narasimhan Ram, B. Raman, S. Gopal, Dr. S. Chandrasekharan, C.S. Kuppuswamy, M K Narayanan, to name a few.

The West should increase clandestine ties with the Tamil Tigers further, keeping in mind India is watching. Kosovo type solution is time consuming, and India won't let it happen.

The West should provide military and political assistance to Tamil Tigers. All Tamil political prisoners should be released from the US, Canada, and the EU confinements. West should start de-proscribing the LTTE, and elevate them as Freedom Fighters. West should create a conduit for the creation of Tamil Eelam. West should recognize Tamil Eelam within a year. It is a signal to India that it should fall in line with the West, or else…

There is no doubt that the US policy makers are also busy drafting policies for ever changing world. South Indian industries can also be used to weaken the Central, in many ways. Not all ideas and plans can be spelled out for general public, how India can be broken.

Source: http://globalpolitician.com

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